The logic was there – six finals in nine, including the last one, had been won by teams batting first, and the last two losses against the Rising Pune Supergiant this season came while chasing. So, when Rohit Sharma decided to bat first in the IPL 2017 final, it looked like a could-backfire-but-understandable decision.
However, if you do decide to bat first – like the Sunrisers Hyderabad did last season – you must put up a big score, which the Mumbai Indians failed to do.
Chasing their third title of the IPL, MI floundered with the bat, RPS did brilliantly with the ball, the Mumbai Indians finished with just 129 runs on the board and the Rising Pune Supergiant looked nailed-on for their first ever title.
However, courtesy some outstanding bowling and plenty of RPS-under-pressure-losing-their-way-batting, the Mumbai Indians, somehow, somehow, pulled off a victory, a victory by one single run.
The batting innings was a disaster for MI right from the off.
Parthiv Patel and Lendl Simmons fell in just the third over of the match, both wickets going to the brilliant Jaydev Unadkat, who is one of the major reasons behind RPS's brilliant run to the title in IPL 2017.
The first to go was Parthiv (4, 6b), who failed to get on top of a short ball from Unadkat and only managed to find mind-on. Three balls later and Simmons (3, 8b) joined Parthiv in the dugout after failing to pick up a slower delivery and giving a catch back to Unadkat, who took it spectacularly, diving to his left.
Rohit and Ambati Rayudu (12, 15b, 1x4) tried to settle things down and build a partnership, but a bit of fielding brilliance from Steve Smith ended those hopes.
With (24, 22b, 4x4) Rohit then giving his wicket away by holing out at deep midwicket off Adam Zampa, MI found themselves in real trouble, having lost their top four.
It got worse when Kieron Pollard (7, 3b, 1x6), after starting his innings with a massive six off Zampa, fell while trying to hit the leg-spinner for another maximum, with Hardik Pandya (10, 9b, 1x6) also dismissed by Dan Christian.
When Karn Sharma (1, 5b) was run out a little later, MI were staring at being bowled out for a score of under 100 in an IPL final.
However, Krunal Pandya (47, 38b, 3x4, 2x6), with a bit of help from Mitchell Johnson (13 n.o., 14b, 1x6), ensured MI would at least have some sort of score to try and defend.
In the chase, Rahul Tripathi (3, 8b), who has gone cold in the last few games for RPS, fell early to Jasprit Bumrah, bit from there Ajinkya Rahane and Steve Smith took control.
You can't ask for two better batsmen than these two when all you need to do is to stay calm, but despite putting up a decent partnership, what these two did not do was score quickly enough to take the pressure of the chase in a big final completely away.
So, when Rahane fell in the 12th over, there was still plenty to do for RPS, because this slow wicket in Hyderabad was not an easy one for a new batsman to come in and just go smash-bang.
Expectedly, MS Dhoni took some time to get used to the wicket, and with Smith not quite getting to his fluent zone, the required run rate just kept climbing up, going all the way up to 9.40, with five overs to go, which really should never happen when you're chasing 130.
But, that is what a big final does and that's why most teams prefer to bat first and put a score on the board.
MI, by bowling well, had suddenly made a target of 130 look like 150-160, and the pressure was back on RPS.
Needing 47 from 30 balls, RPS had to get a big over from somewhere, and they managed that when they picked up 14 runs from Krunal Pandya's over, with Smith smashing a drool-inducing reverse-hit six.
That over should have taken the pressure off, but it came back on again when Jasprit Bumrah picked up the big wicket of Dhoni (10, 13b, 1x4), who edged one through to the wicketkeeper.
Thanks to a brilliant Bumrah three-run over, the equation going into the final three overs read 30 from 18.
Suddenly the RPS dugout looked like a worried bunch, especially after a quality ten balls from Lasith Malinga and Bumrah, but a fabulous six from Smith turned the match around again, with the Rising Pune Supergiant left needing 11 runs from the final Mitchell Johnson over.
A four was a great start, but next ball, Manoj Tiwary (7, 8b, 1x4) fell looking for the glamour six, even if that wicket did bring Smith back on strike, with seven runs needed from four balls.
The drama wasn't done, though, as Smith fell off the next ball, smashing, absolutely smashing a drive to Ambati Rayudu at deep cover.
Smith (51, 50b, 2x4, 2x6) was distraught, Johnson ecstatic and, again, the match was MI's to lose, with two new RPS batsmen at the crease.
A scampered single later, with RPS needing six from two balls, Hardik Pandya blew the chance to pretty much give MI the title by dropping Dan Christian. That drop and two runs meant RPS required four from the final ball for a win.
All they could manage was two, and MI won their third IPL title by one run.
Watch the highlights of the RPS vs MI IPL 2017 final
IPL 2017 final scorecard: RPS vs MI:
Toss: MI, who chose to bat.
MI: 129/8 in 20 overs.
RPS: 128/6 in 20 overs.
Result: MI won by 1 run.
Bowling: RPS: Jaydev Unadkat 4-0-19-2; Washington Sundar 4-0-13-0; Shardul Thakur 2-0-7-0; Lockie Ferguson 2-0-21-0; Adam Zampa 4-0-32-2; Dan Christian 4-0-34-2.
MI: Krunal Pandya 4-0-31-0; Mitchell Johnson 4-0-26-3; Jasprit Bumrah 4-0-26-2; Lasith Malinga 4-0-21-0; Karn Sharma 4-0-18-0.
Fall of wickets: MI: 7/1, Parthiv Patel (2.1 overs); 8/2, Lendl Simmons (2.4 overs); 41/3, Ambati Rayudu (7.2 overs); 56/4, Rohit Sharma (10.1 overs); 65/5, Kieron Pollard (11 overs); 78/6, Hardik Pandya (13.2 overs); 79/7, Karn Sharma (14.1 overs); 129/8, Krunal Pandya (20 overs).
RPS: 17/1, Rahul Tripathi (2.2 overs); 71/2, Ajinkya Rahane (11.5 overs); 98/3, MS Dhoni (16.2 overs); 123/4, Manoj Tiwary (19.2 overs); 123/5, Steve Smith (19.3 overs); 128/6, Dan Christian (20 overs).
